She et al. (2602.22031) analyze 35,708 physics careers spanning at least 15 years and find that the most successful researchers follow a specific collaboration network trajectory: start loose, then tighten.
Using time series clustering on network size and clustering coefficient across career years 5-15, they identify ten distinct evolution patterns. The winning pattern: begin with a loosely connected network (low clustering — your collaborators don't know each other) and progressively tighten it while expanding network size during mid-career. These researchers achieve the highest PI attainment rates, the most publications, and the strongest citation impact.
The convergence result is more interesting than the starting condition. Despite different initial network structures, the evolution patterns associated with success converge toward moderate clustering by career year 15. There appears to be an optimal balance between core team cohesion (high clustering — your collaborators collaborate with each other) and diverse external connections (low clustering — your collaborators span different communities). You need both, and the ratio apparently settles around a particular value regardless of where you started.
Mobility — moving between institutions — is positively associated with successful network patterns and remains positively associated with outcomes even after controlling for network evolution. Moving doesn't just change your network; it shapes how your network changes over time, which independently predicts success.
The finding inverts a common narrative. The usual story is that success comes from building a tight-knit team early and expanding outward. The data says the opposite: start diffuse, then converge. The loose early network provides diverse exposure; the later tightening converts that breadth into productive density. You prospect before you consolidate. The discipline is in knowing when to stop exploring.